LY (last year's) Prediction:
A new all-ages performance space will open that caters to high-school
kids, resurrecting the Cog Factory name.
I couldn't have been more wrong, or naïve. No one is going
to fork over the cash to open a club guaranteed to lose money. Robb
Rathe, the guy who invented The Cog Factory, never intended it to
make a dime. Such selfless, non-materialistic dreamers are a thing
of the past.
LY Prediction: Living
rooms will be introduced to Omaha music via a new weekly television
program on one of the local affiliates.
KVXO began featuring local bands' videos as filler between programming,
and even interviewed bands as part of their nightly "news"
broadcast. The Alister Banister Show, dedicated to local musicians,
was launched on Cox Channel 23.
A couple new stores will open that sell new and used CDs, collectables
and Urban Outfitter-style apparel.
I'm telling you, it's a great idea. Let's get on it, venture capitalists!
National box chains (Best Buy, Target) will get out of the music
biz after the major labels drop CD prices below $10.
Box stores are still in the game, using CDs as loss leaders to lure
you in to buy more profitable merchandise. That said, below-$10
sale CDs are commonplace in many chain stores.
Apple's iTunes will be forced into a tiered pricing scheme. Oldies
will still cost 99 cents to download, while new tracks will run
$1.29 or more.
Steve Jobs has managed to weather pressure from labels to create
a tiered pricing system. How long can he hold out? As long as iTunes
dominates the legitimate download market.
We're going to have to keep waiting for the next important music
trend to emerge -- nothing new will happen in '06, though more indie
bands will sign to majors.
The "next big thing" in fact never emerged last year.
And while few indie bands made the jump to majors, another popular
way to "sell out" -- selling songs to Madison Ave. --
never has been more pervasive. Just ask Of Montreal, Spoon, M Ward...
Bands we'll be talking about this time next year: Morrissey, New
Order/Joy Division, Radiohead, Modest Mouse, The Postal Service,
Prince, Tilly and the Wall, Ladyfinger, Cursive, Sarah Benck, The
Cure, The Who, David Bowie and Simon Joyner.
A new Joy Division bio-pic has been filmed, with the help of members
of New Order. Prince's "Black Sweat" is perhaps his best
song since "Kiss." Tilly were on Letterman Oct. 27. Ladyfinger
released their debut on Saddle Creek. Cursive released their best
album ever, as did Simon Joyner. And no one (but me) saw that Who
LY Prediction: Bands
we won't be talking about: Clap Your Hands and Say Yeah, Bright
Eyes, U2, Kanye West, The White Stripes, Fitty, Fall Out Boy, Franz
Ferdinand, Wilco and Ryan Adams.
Except for U2's singles comp, those bands were mostly AWOL in '06.
All of Michael Jackson's personal and legal troubles will come to
No, he didn't die. Instead he fled to Bahrain, where he's exulted
as a God. Now the "King of Pop" could be headed back to
the U.S. to headline the place where has-beens go to die: Las Vegas.
One Percent Productions will enter partnerships with large venues
in markets outside of Omaha and Lincoln. Marc and Jim in business
suits? Unfortunately, yes.
I've yet to see either of them in anything but jeans and T-shirts.
Slowdown, the highly anticipated downtown Saddle Creek Records office/music
venue/bar/retail space/condos/movie theater/pizza place, won't open
in the fall of 2006, as had been announced. But look out 2007.
Construction on Slowdown was delayed until late this summer. The
new target date: summer '07.
Technology will take a breather in '06. The division won't be between
Sirius and XM radio users, but between those who listen to satellite
radio and the rest of us.
Other than YouTube, no new groundbreaking technology emerged last
year. And while satellite radio got a boost from Howard Stern, I've
yet to find a compelling reason to make the investment.
A non-Saddle Creek act from Omaha or Lincoln will make an appearance
on a late-night chat show. Meanwhile, Bright Eyes will be a "special
musical guest" on an episode of Saturday Night Live.
As mentioned, Tilly and the Wall were on Letterman Oct. 27. As for
SNL, well that sort of happened, too. Toward the end of the
May 20 SNL broadcast, host Kevin Spacey did a skit as Neil
Young promoting his new album I Do Not Agree With Many Of This
Administration's Policies. Among his backing band, Adam Samberg
(famous for the "Lazy Sunday" vid) dressed up and introduced
as Conor Oberst.